President Trump and his senior advisors significantly underestimated Iran's capacity and willingness to retaliate, according to reporting by the New York Times. Before the conflict began, the administration dismissed warnings about potential disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump's team reportedly convinced that Iran would not risk a direct confrontation with the United States at that scale.

Those assumptions were quickly overtaken by events. Iran's threats against commercial tankers in the Persian Gulf nearly brought maritime traffic to a halt, sending oil prices sharply higher and triggering alarm across global energy markets. A Pentagon official acknowledged that the administration "didn't necessarily expect them to react in exactly that way." The United States spent approximately $5.6 billion in ammunition during just the first two days of active operations, a figure that underscored both the intensity of the engagement and the financial weight of sustaining it.

Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the administration has "no plan" for safely reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial traffic, a prerequisite for stabilizing energy markets and de-escalating economic pressure on US allies. Growing pessimism has taken hold within parts of the administration as the conflict stretches beyond the timeline its architects envisioned, with no clear exit ramp in sight and international partners pressing Washington for a coherent strategy.