Following the global oil price spike - Brent reached $119.50 per barrel, the highest level since 2022 - the Energy Regulatory Commission (RKE) today set new maximum retail fuel prices in Macedonia. The expected increase is up to 9 denars per litre for Eurosuper-95 and diesel.

Oil prices surged sharply after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz - through which 20% of global oil shipments pass. In just a few days, Brent jumped by 30-45%, and the prices of all fuel derivatives rose accordingly.

Analysts are examining three scenarios for the Macedonian economy: in a limited conflict - fuel increases of 5-15%; in a regional escalation - 30-60%; and in the case of a global crisis - oil could reach $150-200 per barrel.

A larger fuel price increase is expected next Monday (16 March), when this week's prices will feed into the eight-day average used for calculation. Additional pressure comes from the strong US dollar, which has made oil derivatives priced in denars more expensive.

Economists warn that Macedonia has limited fiscal reserves to cope with this type of crisis. Public debt is approaching 60% of GDP, and room for additional borrowing is narrow - the country is more vulnerable than in previous crises.