Iran's military performance in the opening phase of the conflict has exposed significant gaps in US intelligence assessments, according to officials and analysts familiar with the situation. The Trump administration entered the campaign with expectations shaped by assessments that proved, in the words of one Pentagon official, substantially inaccurate. The intensity and coordination of Iranian strikes in the first week alone surpassed what military planners had modeled as a likely worst case.

Most strikingly, the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei and other senior members of Iran's leadership did not produce the command paralysis US and Israeli planners had anticipated. Iran's military and political structures continued to direct operations with apparent coherence, launching successive waves of strikes against Israeli territory and American military installations across the region. The durability of the command chain suggested a degree of decentralization and institutional resilience that pre-conflict assessments had not fully credited.

US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military and infrastructure assets began on February 28, with operations extending into Tehran itself. Iran's retaliatory response unfolded rapidly and at scale, hitting back at Israeli territory and US bases stretching from Iraq to the Persian Gulf. The mismatch between expected and actual Iranian capabilities has prompted urgent internal reviews within the administration as the conflict enters a phase its architects did not foresee.