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Iran's Mosaic War – A Strategy for Survival Within the Ring of Alliances

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Iran is developing a strategy called "mosaic warfare" – a combination of asymmetric warfare, drones, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks – which so far enables it to resist the American-Israeli military pressure. But this does not mean Tehran's position is comfortable: decades of American diplomacy have built a virtually impenetrable ring of alliances around Iran, turning the conflict into a strategic labyrinth.

The "balance of threat" theory in international relations analysis explains why Iran has virtually no allies. Tehran's aggressive rhetoric, support of proxy actors on multiple fronts, and sub-threshold operations created a strong perception of threat among neighboring countries, which themselves then sought shelter under the American security umbrella. Thus, rather than being forced, the regional acceptance of American security architecture came naturally and durably.

However, Iranian citizens are paying the heaviest price. More than 90 million people are trapped between American-Israeli bombs and a suffocating state apparatus that prevents any form of dissent with even greater force. Paramilitary Basij units patrol the streets, the internet is blocked, and authorities distribute threats that documenting events is punishable. People describe apocalyptic scenes: "Night became morning, morning became night" – the sky lit by explosions, covered in smoke.

Although NATO missile defense systems in Turkey have already intercepted Iranian rockets, raising the question of triggering Article 5 on collective defense, Iran for now resorts to its proxy networks rather than direct confrontation with the Alliance. The vigilance of the international community is critical: a strategic vacuum has no place in an unstable regional balance where decisions are made in seconds and consequences are measured in decades.