Despite being warned in advance about a possible Iranian response, US President Donald Trump claims Tehran's strikes were completely unexpected. According to US intelligence sources, Iranian retaliation was assessed as possible, though not guaranteed.

Trump twice repeated that Iran's strikes on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait were a surprise. "They shouldn't have attacked all those Middle Eastern countries. Nobody expected this. We were shocked," he stated at a White House meeting.

Two sources indicate that Trump had been previously informed that Tehran would most likely attempt to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

According to a US official, Trump was informed that the attack on Iran could trigger a broader regional conflict, including Iranian strikes on the capitals of Gulf states — especially if Tehran believed those nations supported or actively participated in American operations.

The intelligence community also warned that Iran could extend its retaliation to US regional allies. The evacuation of diplomatic personnel from several embassies in the region was ordered only after air operations had begun.