The Pentagon and Trump administration significantly underestimated Iran's readiness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli military strikes. Multiple sources familiar with the situation note this represents "the worst-case scenario" US authorities now face.

Key decision-makers insufficiently considered potential economic consequences. Although representatives from the Departments of Energy and Treasury participated in some planning meetings, their analyses were marginalized. Trump's tendency to consult a narrow circle of advisors resulted in neglect of inter-agency discussions on economic risks.

Iran's actual response surprised diplomatic partners and former US officials. "Planning to prevent precisely this scenario - no matter how unlikely it seemed - is a fundamental principle of US national security policy for decades" - a former official stated, adding: "I'm stunned."

Shipping company directors repeatedly requested military escorts for oil tankers through the strait, but all requests were rejected. US military representatives consistently stated they have no orders for escorting and the risks are extremely high.

Treasury Secretary Bessent stated escorts will begin "when militarily feasible", while officials admitted before lawmakers in confidential meetings they had not planned for the strait closure as an Iranian response. The administration believed closure would harm Iran more than America - an assessment based on Iran's previous empty threats.