Oil has hit 102 dollars a barrel and has no plans to come back down. The American blockade of Iran has driven investors away, and global markets are under severe pressure. Brent crude jumped 7.3%, WTI 8.7% — numbers that translate directly into prices at the pump.

The Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of the world's oil flows — is blocked. Ships are changing course, navigation is restricted. Iran's parliament quips sarcastically: "Enjoy today's fuel prices" — hinting that this is just the beginning.

OPEC has already lowered its forecast for oil consumption because of the conflict. But that doesn't stop prices from rising — when supply is threatened, economic models fall behind the panic.

For Macedonia, this means more expensive energy imports, more expensive transport, more expensive food. The government has so far announced a fuel price reduction of a few denars — while the global price climbs by tens of dollars. The math is not in our favor.