Brent Oil Above 104 Dollars a Barrel: Only Seven Ships Passed Through Hormuz in a Day, and Washington Is Talking About New Strikes on Iran

Brent crude rose 3.72 percent on the morning of October 8 to 104.01 dollars a barrel. America's WTI climbed by almost exactly the same, 3.71 percent, to around 91.54 dollars. That's not a number that falls out of a clear sky - it's the price of fear.

The strait that has the world by the throat

The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months. Only seven merchant ships got through in a single day, and the flow of crude dropped to around 10.1 million barrels a day - just 74 percent of the pre-war level.

Then came the news that poured oil on the fire. According to the American network NBC, President Donald Trump and his national security team discussed the possibility of relaunching major military operations against Iran in the coming weeks - including a strike before the November congressional elections.

A strike before an election. War as a campaign ad. How many times have we in the Balkans watched tensions rise just as the ballot boxes draw near? The difference is that here it's not only votes on the table, but oil for the whole world.

Gas, gold and wheat are going up

European gas futures for November on the Amsterdam TTF exchange were trading at 79.77 euros per megawatt-hour. Qatar is one of the world's biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas, and its production and exports depend on the Ras Laffan terminal in the Persian Gulf. That's why any trouble in Hormuz immediately raises the risk premium on the European gas market.

European indices are heading down: Germany's DAX fell 0.84 percent, France's CAC 40 0.92 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 0.67 percent and Italy's FTSE MIB 1.13 percent. Gold climbed to 4,125.68 dollars a troy ounce, and wheat to 6.87 dollars a bushel (around 27 kilograms). New York's Dow Jones lost 0.66 percent at the previous close.

Macedonia doesn't produce oil, and fuel prices here move with the exchange quotations. When Brent jumps like this, the only question is how quickly it shows up on the board at the petrol station.

And the biggest risk isn't on the exchange or in the strait. It's in a room in Washington, where someone is calculating whether a war before November brings votes. When war becomes a campaign tactic, the barrel is the first to vote.