Wheat on the world market rose 6.3 percent in September compared with August, reaching its highest level since August 2023, according to the latest report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Sugar went up 6.1 percent, maize 5.6 percent, rice 1.4 percent and vegetable oils 0.9 percent.

The FAO's overall food price index stood at 136 points in September - 1.5 percent higher than in August and 5.8 percent higher than a year ago. Food on world markets is now at its most expensive since November 2022.

Why prices are rising

The causes are far away but familiar: logistics problems in the Black Sea region, dry weather in parts of North America ahead of sowing, and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. "If they persist, these pressures will soon pass through to retail food prices, especially in countries dependent on food and energy imports," warns FAO chief economist Máximo Torero.

Meat got 1.1 percent cheaper, while dairy stayed almost unchanged. On the other hand, the FAO expects world cereal trade to fall 3.5 percent this year, to 505.8 million tonnes.

And bread?

So far there is no confirmed announcement of a general price rise from domestic producers. Bakers say stock bought at lower prices is helping them absorb costs, but some of them were already warning this summer that they are finding it harder and harder to hold current prices. A 6.3 percent rise on the commodity exchange doesn't automatically mean the same rise for a loaf in the shop - the final price depends on contracts, stocks and other costs.

But stocks aren't endless, and the FAO itself says the hardest hit will be countries that import food and energy. Is anyone in the government already working out what that means for us - or will we once again find out from the price list at the bakery?