NATO's eastern edge is tense, and that comes from a man sitting on that very edge. Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk warned that the security situation on the border with Russia and Belarus is „very unstable" and that neighbouring countries should prepare for various forms of escalation in the coming months.

The statement came after a meeting in Gdańsk attended by leaders from Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and Sweden - that is, precisely the countries that directly border Russia, Belarus or Ukraine. „We unanimously share the view that the situation is very unstable," Tusk said. When seven states say the same thing in one voice, that's no longer alarmism - it's a shared assessment.

Poland's foreign minister went a step further, warning that Moscow could stage false-flag operations to justify further escalation. That's an old playbook the Balkans know well - a staged incident serving as a pretext for something that had already been planned.

Hovering over all of this is a bigger question: how far Europe can rely on the US under President Donald Trump. Tusk stressed that transatlantic ties remain crucial, but the very fact that he had to say it out loud shows how shaken they are. When the ally across the ocean turns unpredictable, the small countries on the edge are left to weigh the risks alone - a feeling that, in this part of the world, is never entirely foreign.