Cuba is entering its most critical period since the collapse of the Soviet Union. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, of Cuban descent, is pressing for reforms. President Trump expects to "take over Cuba."

Analysts are considering three possible scenarios for the island's future.

Scenario 1: Controlled leadership change - The Cuban leadership implements internal reforms while preserving the foundations of the system. This involves gradual liberalization under party oversight.

Scenario 2: Sudden collapse and democratic transition - The regime crumbles under pressure. However, unlike Eastern Europe in 1989, Cuba lacks an organized opposition capable of assuming power.

Scenario 3: Gradual deterioration and mass emigration - The most realistic scenario, already underway. The economic crisis continues to deepen as more Cubans leave the country.