"Pay-to-Play in the Balkans": Dodik Free of Sanctions, Bosnia's Gas Pipeline Goes to a Firm Run by People Close to Trump

In October 2025, Donald Trump's administration lifted sanctions on Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader accused for years of undermining the Dayton Agreement. Six months later Dodik, whose party holds a veto in Bosnia and Herzegovina's parliament, said he would not block the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline - a project he had long opposed. Between those two steps stands a small American firm linked to people close to Trump.

The company is called AAFS Infrastructure & Energy, and it is run by Jesse Binnall, a former Trump lawyer, and Joseph Flynn, brother of Trump ally General Michael Flynn. It was founded on November 24, 2025 in Wyoming - four days after the US embassy in Sarajevo announced a preliminary agreement for "an American company to develop, build and operate the pipeline". According to CBS News, the firm has no proven experience in similar energy projects. In April, through a law passed by Bosnia's parliament, it was granted the status of lead investor and operator.

100,000 dollars for Flynn

Foreign agent registration filings show that Michael Flynn, Trump's former national security adviser, last worked as a paid lobbyist for Republika Srpska in October 2025 - the very month the sanctions were lifted. For that work he received 100,000 dollars from RRB Strategies, the lobbying firm of Rod Blagojevich. Blagojevich is a former governor of Illinois, convicted in 2011 on 18 corruption counts, who served almost eight years in federal prison before Trump pardoned him last year.

House Democrats last month published a report titled "Pay-to-Play in the Balkans". They argue that the two decisions - lifting the sanctions and Dodik's "yes" to the pipeline - are directly connected, and that the administration used its diplomatic leverage to steer the concession to AAFS.

A catastrophe - what kind?

The White House declined to comment on the pipeline. An unnamed administration official told CBS News the sanctions were lifted to prevent instability in the Balkans: "This is yet another example of President Trump's pragmatic and far-sighted foreign policy, which has averted catastrophes on long-standing issues his predecessors so often got wrong." What catastrophe was averted - the official didn't explain.

Dodik, for his part, makes no secret of whom he owes. On Sunday, after his party won one of the three seats in Bosnia's Presidency, he told supporters: "Had it not been for Donald Trump's magnificent victory, we would probably be politically dead today." In the same speech he also thanked Vladimir Putin for his support.

The pipeline itself, worth about 1.7 billion dollars according to the Croatian government, isn't a bad project. It would connect Bosnia to the Croatian gas network, allow imports of liquefied natural gas and reduce dependence on Russian gas. That's exactly why the question is so uncomfortable: when a strategic pipe for an entire country goes to a firm that's a few months old, with no experience but the right surnames - is that energy security or a favour being cashed in? The Balkans recognise deals like this from a mile away.