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Forex Reserves at 5.21 Billion Euros: the Denar's Shield While Oil Goes Wild

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Forex Reserves at 5.21 Billion Euros: the Denar's Shield While Oil Goes Wild

The state's foreign-exchange reserves at the end of May stood at 5,210 million euros, the National Bank reported. A figure few citizens read with much attention - yet it affects everything: from the stability of the denar to the interest rates on loans.

The structure is conservative, as it should be: the largest share, 68.5 percent, is placed in securities, monetary gold accounts for 16.6 percent, and currencies and deposits for 14.9 percent. In other words - two thirds in safe bonds, a sixth in gold, the rest liquid.

Why does this matter right now? Because the forex reserves are the shield the National Bank uses to defend the denar's fixed peg to the euro. At a time when oil is heading toward 105 dollars a barrel and world markets are jittery over the Gulf, the thickness of that shield isn't a statistical footnote - it's the difference between „stable" and „fingers crossed."

Five billion and change in reserve sounds comfortable. The question that remains for governors and ministers is simple: in a year of expensive energy and pricier imports, will the shield be filled or drawn down? The next monthly reports will say more than any press release.