The world's oil stockpiles are melting away at an unprecedented pace. According to the latest forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), reserves in OECD countries will fall below 2.3 billion barrels by December - the lowest level since 2003. And the price of „Brent" crude, the EIA estimates, will hover around 105 dollars a barrel in June and July - with futures standing at around 92 dollars before the forecast was released.

The culprit is well known: roughly a fifth of the world's oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Middle East crisis, by these estimates, is costing the market around 11 million barrels a day in lost regional output. Countries are filling the gap from their own commercial and strategic reserves - and that's exactly why storage is draining at record speed: by 6.3 million barrels a day in the second quarter, with 7.66 million projected for the third.

Meanwhile, one player is dazzling with historic numbers: the US. American net exports of oil and derivatives hit a record 5.8 million barrels a day in April, with this year's average estimated at 4.2 million - three times more than last year. When the Middle East is on fire, someone always sells water. Or, in this case, oil.

There's also one figure that runs against everything else: global demand this year is expected to fall by 1.1 million barrels a day - the first drop since 2020. High prices do their work: when fuel is too expensive, the world drives less, flies less and produces less. The only question is which holds out longer - the reserves or the crisis.

For us the translation is simple and needs no analyst: the price of a barrel from the Gulf reaches every pump between Skopje and Bitola with a few weeks' delay. If the EIA is right about 105 dollars in July, filling the tank this summer will be one more line to rearrange in the household budget. Plan accordingly.