Japan's pacifist tradition is starting to give way - and Ukraine is already dreaming of weapons stamped "Made in Japan". The loosening of arms-export rules brought in by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi is opening up conversations that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

Ukraine's ambassador in Tokyo, Yurii Lutovinov, told Reuters: "It allows us to talk. Theoretically, that's a significant step forward". He's speaking about theory. In practice, Japan still has export restrictions on conflict zones, but it now has exemptions that carry a strategic benefit for Tokyo. Those exemptions can open the road to Kyiv.

Why Japan now? Because Taiwan sits 110 kilometres from Japanese territory. Former prime minister Fumio Kishida said in 2022 the sentence every Japanese strategist now quotes: "Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow". From that sentence on, Japan approved the largest increase in defence investment since the Second World War.

Ukraine wants Japanese air-defence systems - to reduce its dependency on American Patriot missiles. Washington doesn't deliver them at the same pace. They were a frozen face for Kyiv last winter. Alternatives are sought where they exist - and Japan now turns up as a possible partner.

For electronics and microcomponents for Ukrainian drones, Japan could be a key player. Kyiv today produces drones in tens of thousands per month. Microchips, sensors, optical systems - all of that can come from Tokyo instead of Silicon Valley.

This is a change in the ecological structure of diplomacy. When Japan transforms a pacifist idea it has held for decades, it sends a message to Moscow, to Beijing, and to Brussels. The Balkans should watch this as a case study: when small players turn into big ones, no one else is a "harmless neighbour" anymore.