Israel Punished Netanyahu's Coalition on the Highest Turnout Since 1999: According to Exit Polls, the Key to Government Lies With the Arab Parties

The first exit polls after Israel's parliamentary elections show that the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot has won more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition. But neither side has a majority to form a government. That requires 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats, and according to the first estimates, neither bloc gets there.

Turnout was the highest since 1999 - at least 77.7% of voters went to the polls. Netanyahu's Likud remains the largest single party, while the Arab parties, according to projections, won a record 17 to 18 seats. They could now decide who governs Israel.

Eisenkot immediately announced he would move to replace Netanyahu. The prime minister's allies warn that the opposition is celebrating too soon. Only the exit poll by Channel 14, a broadcaster widely seen as Netanyahu's mouthpiece, put the prime minister on the verge of victory. Few believed it.

"Netanyahu's coalition lost 18 seats. I would call that a flood," said Lian Pollak-David, an incoming MP from Eisenkot's Yashar party. The leader of the left-wing Democrats, Yair Golan, wrote that "the public has replaced Netanyahu's government". From Likud, former education minister Yoav Kisch told everyone already making plans to wait for the final results.

The Arab parties move from the margins to the centre

One of the biggest winners should be the Arab party Ra'am, which the projections give seven seats. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, said both blocs had contacted him. "Everyone is talking to us, not just the change bloc," Abbas said, signalling that he is ready to join a coalition led by Eisenkot. Still, he admitted that "at the moment there aren't enough seats to form a government".

A survey by the aChord Center at the Hebrew University found that a majority of opposition-bloc voters want Eisenkot to form a government precisely with Ra'am. The Arab parties now hold the balance. Will Israel's centre dare to form a government that depends on them - and how long would such a government last?

What comes next

The real battle begins after the count. Once all the votes are counted, which usually takes a few days, President Isaac Herzog consults with every elected party and hands the mandate to the candidate with the best chance of building a stable coalition - not necessarily the leader of the largest party. Since neither the opposition nor the Arab parties will recommend Netanyahu, Eisenkot will probably get the first shot.

He would have four to six weeks to negotiate ministerial posts, budget priorities and policy direction. If he fails - and given his limited political experience, that's a real possibility - the mandate most likely goes to Netanyahu and everything starts over. If he fails too, new elections follow.

Israel's longest-serving prime minister has pulled off incredible comebacks before. But tonight voters left him with the largest party and no path to power. And in Israel, as in the Balkans, the vote count is only the first step - the real victory is measured by who gets to form the government and keep it alive.