Lula Wins a Fourth Term at 80: Bolsonaro's Son Falls Where His Father Fell

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is 80, and since yesterday he also has a fourth term as president of Brazil. Nobody before him has won four times. In the run-off he beat senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, by 51.76 to 48.24 percent, with 99.81 percent of the votes counted. A gap of about three and a half percentage points in a country of more than 200 million people.

The win is even rarer because Lula went into the run-off as the loser. On October 4 Flávio Bolsonaro was ahead of him by about 2.2 million votes, but without an absolute majority. Since direct presidential elections returned in 1989, no candidate had ever won after finishing second in the first round. Until yesterday.

The father in prison, the son in the run-off

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a prison sentence over his attempt to overturn the 2022 election. The son was supposed to finish what the father could not: beat Lula. He could not either. Still, the Bolsonaro movement remained strong: Flávio took all four south-eastern states, including São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, home to 40 percent of voters. He also took Minas Gerais, the state that usually picks the winner. Polls from July showed that 44 percent of Brazilians consider themselves right-wing or centre-right.

Politics where the son takes over the campaign of a father sitting in prison - how many times have we watched that scene a lot closer to home?

Two extra hours of voting and machines that can't be switched back on

Election day ended in a scandal. Voting was extended by two hours after both campaigns complained. Lula's campaign claimed voters in three cities in Bahia could not reach polling stations because of public transport problems. Supreme Court justice Cristiano Zanin approved the extension, but it was announced around 5 p.m., when many stations were already closing. Brazil's electronic voting machines cannot be switched back on once they are turned off, so in some places the machines had been shut down and in others they stayed on. A director in the Bolsonaro campaign called it a "shameful and untimely" decision. A volunteer from São Paulo said "nobody told us anything".

Prices, crime and women

The campaign was fought over security: 28 percent of Brazilians say violence is the country's biggest problem. Flávio promised to designate criminal gangs as terrorist organisations, build more prisons and lower the age of criminal responsibility. Lula had to defend himself over an earlier remark that drug dealers are victims too, which he later admitted was poorly phrased. Although unemployment is low and inflation is falling, many voters have not felt any improvement, because prices at the shop remain high. Sound familiar?

Women were decisive: they make up 53 percent of the electorate and lean more towards Lula. Men voted more for Flávio, evangelicals for Bolsonaro, Catholics for Lula.

Donald Trump said he is "following" the situation. Flávio presented himself as Washington's loyal partner, while Lula insists on independence and closer ties with China and the Global South. The win does not give him a peaceful term: he will govern with a very conservative Congress, and almost half the voters ticked the box against him.