The price of oil is climbing again. Brent - 104.56 dollars a barrel (up 1.9%). WTI - 97.64 dollars (up 1.35%). And that's after sharp drops in the previous days, which means the market doesn't know where to settle. The reason for the nerves: the uncertain peace talks between the US and Iran.

For European consumers, this means one thing: fuel stays expensive. Last month, prices entered households through a 5-10% rise in electricity and heating bills. Now, with markets climbing again, that rise isn't going back down - at least not until it's clear whether Iran will accept nuclear terms, or hold its current position.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical pressure point for world markets. Around 20-30% of the world's oil transport passes through it. When the situation there is uncertain, prices go up - even without a single ship being stopped. That's the risk premium.

For Macedonia, this means one thing in practice. The price of fuel here is set by a weekly formula - tied to world prices, plus trader margins, plus excise tax. When Brent is over 100 dollars for two months in a row - fuel prices at the pump will sit above the 2025 average. And with them, the price of everything else that has to be transported.

Analysts warn that even an eventual US-Iran deal won't bring prices crashing down. There are broken supply chains from 2022 that haven't been restored, there's a geopolitical risk premium baked into the calculation, and there's the general jitters - which nothing on the markets can fully erase. That's the reality European and Balkan consumers will live with for at least another year.