The world economy is facing one of its weakest years this century, the pandemic and the 2008 crisis aside. That's the warning from UN and European Commission economists. Global GDP growth for 2026 - 2.5%, below the previous projection of 2.7%. Under the worst scenario - possibly 2.1%.

For Europe the situation is especially bleak. The European Commission cut its EU growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.1%. For the eurozone - even lower, 0.9%. Which means the economy is effectively standing still, with the kind of forward motion that fits inside the statistical error bar.

What's driving it? Energy prices. The old 2022 lesson is being re-read - Europe is too dependent on energy imports. Now, with the crisis around Hormuz and Middle East tensions, oil prices are back above 100 dollars a barrel. Which means more expensive petrol, more expensive electricity, more expensive food - and less money in household budgets.

Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis at the UN division: "We are not close to recession." That's a political statement. Translation: "technically we're not in recession, but plenty of people will live as if we were." Global inflation is now projected at 3.9% - 0.8 percentage points above the previous forecast.

Concretely for European consumers: confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 40 months. Households expect bigger heating and fuel bills in the autumn. Companies face weaker demand and higher financing costs. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is asking Brussels to loosen fiscal rules to help families and industry.

For the Balkans, this means two things. First - exports to the EU will shrink, which directly hits Macedonian and Serbian exporters. Second - the Balkans are energy-dependent on the same markets that are getting expensive. When Europe coughs, the Balkans catch cold - and this time, it's not a metaphor. It's the economic model.

The US remains "relatively resilient" with 2% growth. China - 4.6%, India - 6.4%. The world increasingly splits into "those who grow" and "those who hold on" - and Europe, for all its wealth, is now in the second group. The question economists won't answer in the open: is this cyclical, or structural?