Mickoski: the pension system is stable. Fiscal Council: the pension fund deficit is 54.4 billion denars

"Absolutely nobody needs to worry," Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski declared. The pension system, he says, is stable and secure. Asked whether the government is considering gradually raising the retirement age, his answer was short: "Not for now, at least."

The statement came after Macedonia's Fiscal Council warned of a growing deficit. According to its analysis, the shortfall in the Pension and Disability Insurance Fund has reached 54.4 billion denars, or 5.2% of GDP. Without serious measures, the deficit could hit 6.6% within ten years. The Council proposes raising contributions from 18.8% to 20%, raising the retirement age by one year, letting people stay at work voluntarily for longer, a higher minimum pension and an end to ad hoc pension increases.

Mickoski says the government is reviewing all the recommendations but sets policy based on its own assessments. There is money, according to him - it just has to be found where it was being abused. He claims that after checks on the ground, this month's bill was 200 million denars lower than in the same month last year, because the beneficiaries included "dead people, people who've emigrated, fake people", and that more than 4,500 fake recipients of guaranteed minimum assistance and social security benefits have been uncovered.

The opposition paints a different picture. SDSM vice-president Jovana Trenchevska claims the hole in the Pension Fund is "a historic one billion euros, over 14% of the entire state budget", and that the deficit keeps growing even though contributions were raised by one percentage point on 1 July.

The most important number, in fact, came from the prime minister himself. Today there are 709,000 registered employees, and in 15 to 20 years, he fears, there could be fewer than 500,000. "That's when the real problems for the pension system will start," Mickoski said. If the system is only stable for as long as what he called "the reservoir from the past" lasts, how much time do we really have - and why is reform being put off precisely while there's still time to do it?