The United Arab Emirates is walking out of OPEC - the oil cartel that, for more than half a century, dictated the global price of crude. At the same time, the US military released video of a seized Iranian vessel. Two events that, together, test the foundations of the market.

The World Bank has already issued an estimate - it expects energy prices to rise by 24 percent in 2026. That is the largest annual jump since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and the markets fell into shock. Now we have a new shock, a new trajectory.

The Emirates, one of the world's most important oil producers, did not say exactly why they want a one-way trajectory. But the logic is clear. OPEC at the moment is in conflict with OPEC+ - Russian and Iranian interests are not the same as the Saudi and Emirati ones. When the cartel cracks from within, when Iran is fighting for survival, when Saudi is counting every barrel - the Emirates choose to play alone.

"Iran did not inform us that it is in a state of collapse," Donald Trump said with typical confidence. But the Iranian defence ministry spokesperson Reza Talai-Nik responded: "The US is no longer in a position to dictate its policy to independent countries."

At the same time the Israeli defence minister Israel Katz announced: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have ordered the Israeli army to destroy the entire terrorist infrastructure." Rhetoric of unconditional victory in a conflict that is nowhere near finished.

For the Balkans - a 24 percent rise in prices means the summer already will not be at last year's prices. Not petrol, not electricity, not the cost of moving goods. When OPEC itself cannot hold together, Skopje has no alternative supply chains. Our petrol pump is the tail end of markets that, these days, are pretending they still work.