Crude broke through the $108-a-barrel mark. Brent hit $108.50 on the London market, US WTI was at $96.68. In both cases the price hike is the direct result of one thing: US-Iran talks aren't moving, and Hormuz is still blocked.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is touring the region - Islamabad, Moscow, Muscat. The US planned to send a delegation to Pakistan, then cancelled it after Iran made clear it wasn't expecting American talks there. In parallel, Tehran has proposed a phased approach - first a de-escalation and security guarantees, then a conversation about sanctions, oil restrictions and Hormuz. Washington clearly isn't enthused.

ING analysts put it bluntly: "the deadlock in negotiations and concerns over reduced supply are the main drivers of the price hike." Goldman Sachs has already revised its forecasts upward because of the supply disruption. Markets are waiting for signals from both the Federal Reserve and Iran - two completely uncertain points at the same time.

The Strait of Hormuz is the transit chokepoint for nearly a fifth of the world's oil traffic. Every day it stays blocked, the meter ticks up. Whether someone in Tehran or Washington blinks first - that's the question markets don't have an answer to.