Brent crude is moving around 110 dollars a barrel this morning, up 1.90 percent. At the same time, WTI crude jumped above 107 dollars, a 2.32 percent increase. European markets are mixed - not chasing a rally, not falling either. A tight market waiting for the next signal.

What's driving the rise? According to market analysis, two factors are key. First - geopolitical risk around Iran and the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump temporarily suspended a military strike on Iran, and the markets took the news by stripping the "war premium" out of the price. Now, with uncertainty about what comes next, prices are creeping back up.

Second - fuel demand ahead of summer. Seasonally, May-June is a period of increased transport in Europe and the US. Airlines stock up their reserves for the summer calendar. Shipping and trucking firms refill their consumption.

What does this mean for an ordinary citizen? Petrol will get more expensive. A simple correlation: if crude rises 2%, that on average means pump prices for petrol and diesel rise by roughly 1-2 denars a litre within 7-14 days. On an annual basis, for someone driving 15,000 km - that's 200-300 euros in extra spend.

For a Balkan context, 110 dollars is ten percent higher than a year ago. That makes regional fuel chronically problematic - especially because our wages don't rise proportionally. When the price of oil fell in 2020-2021, we didn't see serious drops at the pumps. When it rises - we pay the difference immediately.

Gold prices are simultaneously moving around 4,545 dollars an ounce. That's a signal that investors are nervous - when gold jumps, money looks for safe harbour. The euro sits at 1.164 dollars, which is stable. Wheat at 6.54 dollars a bushel, in slight rise. All signals - moderate instability, no real panic. For now.