Building Permits Fell by 19.4 Percent and the Value of Construction by 36.4: of 919 Planned Flats, 684 Are in the Skopje Region

Construction showed signs of fatigue in September. According to the State Statistical Office, 253 building permits were issued, 19.4 percent fewer than in September last year. Even more important, the planned value of those buildings fell by 36.4 percent, to around 4.5 billion denars, or roughly 73.6 million euros.

Value is falling almost twice as fast as the number of permits. That means not only less is being built, but more modestly too: the average value per permit fell from around 22.7 to 17.9 million denars. Of the 253 permits, 166 are for buildings, 26 for civil engineering works and 61 for reconstruction of existing structures.

919 new flats are planned, averaging around 74 square metres, and most are two-bedroom - 414. But the map is devastating. The Skopje Region takes 684 flats, almost three quarters of the total. Next come the Southwest Region with 132 and the Polog Region with 58. In the entire Pelagonia Region five flats are planned, in the East Region four, and in the Northeast three. What do these numbers say about where people still see a future?

There is a slowdown outside the country too. The value of construction work contracted by Macedonian firms abroad from January to September fell by 72.2 percent, to 33.1 million denars, and this year the work is mainly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Albania. Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Iceland, where firms worked last year, have vanished from the statistics.

Does this mean flats will get cheaper? The numbers don't say that. An issued permit doesn't mean construction has started, that the investor has the money or that the flats will be finished on time, and answering that takes data on sales, prices and loans. But if less is being built and demand in Skopje doesn't drop, who really believes the price will fall on its own?