Bulgaria goes to its eighth parliamentary election in five years tomorrow. Eighth. Not a single government completed a full term. The country cycles through caretaker governments, fragile coalitions, and short-lived alliances that regularly collapse amid scandals. Voter trust is at a historic low.

Former President Rumen Radev, who recently resigned to run, leads in polls with his newly formed "Progressive Bulgaria" party at around 33% support. The paradox? Bulgaria joined Schengen and adopted the euro precisely during this period of chaos - without a functional government and without approved state budgets.

The immediate trigger for these elections were massive protests in late 2025 - the largest in recent decades. Discontent over a controversial budget proposal grew into broader resistance against the political establishment. Two figures drew particular public anger: Boyko Borisov, GERB leader and former premier, and Delyan Peevski - a controversial oligarch leading the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, under UK and US sanctions for alleged corruption and bribery.

Observers draw parallels between Radev and Hungarian PM Viktor Orban - but with opposing implications. Some see the encouraging precedent of Hungary's recent high turnout ending Orban's 16-year rule. Others warn of concerning parallels, particularly Radev's opposition to military aid for Ukraine and his consistent advocacy for dialogue with Moscow.

For Macedonia, this isn't a distant story. A neighbor that can't form a stable government in five years, yet enters Schengen and the eurozone - while we're still waiting for basic steps toward the EU. Is Bulgaria's chaos a warning or encouragement? Depends who you ask.