Oil has fallen below the magic 100-dollar threshold per barrel. Brent crude dropped from 103.65 to around 98.50 on news of possible US-Iran peace talks, then continued down to 96.60 overnight. Renewed hopes for a US-Iranian peace deal and the two-week ceasefire are calming markets - temporarily, at least.

But before celebrating those fill-ups, some context - oil is still 36 percent more expensive than before the conflict, when a barrel cost 72 dollars. Falling below 100 is good news only if you forget where we started.

All 32 members of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from reserves. That is a serious quantity, enough to stabilize markets briefly. But the agency director, Fatih Birol, warned that current prices do not reflect the seriousness of Middle East developments.

Birol was direct - April could be worse than March. The ceasefire is fragile, negotiations are in early stages, and any new escalation can push prices back above 100 dollars within hours.

For Macedonia, every dollar less per barrel means slightly easier breathing. But as long as the Middle East is boiling, nobody should plan a budget based on today's price. Tomorrow is another day, and oil markets have short memories and rattle easily.