The Kremlin looks different this year. Putin has not visited a single military facility in 2026 - a sharp break from his previous routine of regular visits. Chefs, bodyguards and photographers are not allowed on public transport. Visitors go through double verification. Phones in the president's immediate vicinity must have no internet connection. Several Moscow residences and the Valdai and Sochi retreats are essentially abandoned.

A European intelligence agency commissioned to analyse the situation handed its report to CNN. The conclusion: the Kremlin has dramatically tightened security out of fear of assassination and a coup. The backdrop: General Fanil Sarvarov was killed in December, and a series of attacks on senior Russian military officers has intensified through 2025 and 2026.

Russia's monthly losses in Ukraine are estimated at 30,000 men. Territorial gains are modest compared with the price. Ukrainian drones are striking deep inside Russian territory. Moscow is logging mobile-internet shutdowns - a measure that hits the business elite Putin counts as part of his base.

Is Putin really under threat? Or is this an internal message to the security services - "don't play games"? In authoritarian systems, ramping up the leader's security can mean both at the same time. Neither of them is good news for the stability of Russia.