Republika Srpska Voted for Vučić, Serbia Didn't: Dodik Now Has to Work With the Government He Campaigned Against

In Bijeljina, 1,543 votes for the "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia" list, 335 for the Student List. In Doboj, 930 to 47. In Bratunac, 544 to 81. In Lopare, 593 of 613 registered voters turned out - almost 97 percent - and 533 of them ticked Vučić, 47 the students. In Republika Srpska, at least according to the published results from these places, there was no dilemma.

The problem is that Serbia voted differently. According to the CeSID and Ipsos projection, the Student List won 52.9 percent and Vučić 38.8. Banja Luka stayed exactly where Belgrade left it.

SNSD leader Milorad Dodik voted at Serbia's Consulate General in Banja Luka. Before the election, at a meeting with Vučić in Zrenjanin, he called on "everyone who loves Republika Srpska" to vote for Vučić. On election day he repeated the formula: "I care about Serbia, which is the guarantor not only of the Dayton Agreement, but also of the survival and development of Republika Srpska itself."

Just a few hours later, the government Dodik saw as a guarantor lost its majority. Conceding defeat, Vučić addressed Dodik personally: he "will have to" cooperate with the new leadership and the new government, "which for us is completely normal". And he added a sentence that weighs more than the concession itself: "You will also see changes in the attitude towards Republika Srpska, and changes in the attitude towards Sarajevo."

Vučić said it as a warning. In Sarajevo they may read it as relief. The Balkans know very well how much it matters when Belgrade changes direction - the question is whether Dodik, who openly picked one side before the election, will now find a common language with the other. Who will pay if he doesn't?