Alternative for Germany - AfD - has hit 28% in the polls for the first time in its history, four points up from the last election and four points ahead of Chancellor Merz himself with his CDU. The same party that was marginalized and legally scrutinized just a few years ago would now win the election if it were held tomorrow.

The context matters: AfD took 20.8% in the February 2025 federal elections, then doubled its seats in the state parliaments of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in the 2026 regional vote. The poll comes from the INSA agency and shows CDU at 24%, SPD at 14%, the Greens at 12%. AfD is the only party with a growing lead.

The party, led by Alice Weidel, runs an anti-immigration line, a critical stance on Islam, and includes officials who in the past have made antisemitic statements and trivialized the history of the Holocaust. In Germany there is a "firewall" - an informal pact among all the major parties not to enter coalitions with AfD. But researchers have already documented 120 cases of cooperation at the local and regional level.

What does this mean for the region? An AfD in power would mean a different relationship with the EU, stricter immigration policy, and potentially a softer line toward Russia. The Balkans are directly exposed to German politics - through the EU accession process, through the diaspora, and through investment. German election results are not a distant matter.