Donald Trump has signed an executive order on new sanctions against Cuba. That is not a surprise - it is the continuation of the „maximum pressure" strategy the administration has been running since Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro fell. The target now is Havana. And according to a statement from Trump himself - „Cuba is next".

The new sanctions cover individuals, organisations and connected persons who support the Cuban security apparatus, or who are linked to corruption and human rights abuses. On top of that - any foreign person operating in Cuba's energy, defence, mining, financial and security sectors. With secondary sanctions for anyone doing business with the targets.

Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez reacted on 1 May, during the traditional celebrations: „These unilateral measures violate the UN Charter and constitute collective punishment against the Cuban people. The US has no right to impose measures against Cuba, nor against third countries or entities. They will not intimidate us." Standard rhetoric from Havana - which doesn't mean it is wrong.

Why now. According to the official justification of the order - the administration claims Cuba provides „a permissive environment for hostile foreign intelligence, military and terrorist operations less than 100 miles from US territory". That sounds familiar. The same rhetoric was used for Cuba in 1962. And 1985. And 2007. When a state uses the same argument for 60 straight years, that means the argument is not real - it is structural.

The Balkans watches this with a particular antenna. There is no country in the world that doesn't understand what being on „the list" means - because we have been, and still are. Macedonia was under preliminary measures because of the Bulgarian veto, Serbia was under sanctions in the 90s, Bulgaria and Romania had EU restrictions until recently. When a superpower across the ocean decides that „it is time", that means the internal balance is off somewhere. And most often, it means the economy.

Cuba, as an economy, is poor, with the collapse of basic goods and an energy crisis. Sanction pressure cannot make it any lower - it can only make it more non-existent. That is how a migration crisis is quietly produced that will later head for the US border, and Trump will use it as the next crisis to set off the next sanction. The cycle functions - at the cost of people who cannot find bread.