British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned citizens: the conflict around Iran is already hitting the British economy. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz - through which a significant share of the world's oil and gas shipments passes - has triggered shocks that won't go away even when the strait reopens. "The consequences will exist. They already exist," Starmer said bluntly, with no attempt to soften the message.

The government is meeting "almost daily" to track the crisis scenario, even though the official line is that supply chains are still stable. But Starmer warned citizens to change their holiday plans if the conflict drags on - a signal that bills for tourism, transport, and energy may be hit. "Don't panic," he said, while at the same time telling them to prepare.

Oil prices have reached their highest levels in three weeks since the US-Iran talks collapsed. Britain and France are planning to run a "military mission" for safe passage through the strait once the conflict eases. The fact that a Western European prime minister is publicly saying "change your holiday plans" is a measure of how deep this crisis is now hitting daily life.

The Balkans are directly exposed - the region is a heavy importer of oil products, and every spike in global prices passes straight through to the pumps and the heating bills. You don't have to be in London to feel the effects of Hormuz.