Millions of dollars are placed minutes before Trump announces key decisions. The BBC analyzed five cases where traders knew in advance - and made fortunes. Insider trading or coincidence? The numbers speak for themselves.

Case 1: Oil drops 25%

On March 9, Trump told CBS the Iran-Israel conflict was "practically over." But 47 minutes before the statement, oil betting surged. Traders who placed bets early made millions when the price dropped by a quarter.

Case 2: $20 million for 14 minutes of foreknowledge

On April 9, 2025, Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause. Fourteen minutes earlier, trading on S&P 500 funds jumped from hundreds to over 10,000 transactions per minute. The index rose 9.5% in one day. Some traders invested $2 million and earned $20 million.

Case 3: An account from $32,500 to $436,000

An account opened in December 2025 on Polymarket bet $32,500 that Maduro would be captured. On January 3, US special forces arrested him. Earnings: $436,000. The account immediately went inactive.

Case 4: $1.2 million from six accounts

Six accounts opened in February on Polymarket - all bet that the US would attack Iran by the end of the month. When Trump confirmed the attack, combined earnings were $1.2 million.

Laws against insider trading have existed since 1933. Since 2012, they apply to government officials too. But as financial law professor Paul Oudin puts it: "Financial bodies won't pursue cases without identifying information sources." Translation: everyone knows, no one prosecutes. The White House warned staff not to bet with privileged information. The effect? A new record in suspicious transactions.