Seven OPEC+ countries are turning the oil valve again. According to the announcements, the group is preparing a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day from July - the same step as the previous month, slightly less than the increases in April and May. The decision is technical, but it can touch pump prices directly.

The logic is simple on paper: more oil on the market means downward pressure on prices. But the oil market has long stopped running on supply and demand alone - it reacts to every tension in the Middle East, every threat of conflict, every piece of news that smells of instability. So a production increase can be declared good news while the price doesn't drop a single cent.

Part of the adjustment, they say, also comes from changes in the United Arab Emirates' production status within the OPEC+ quota system. In other words - behind every figure sits an internal calculation among member states that don't always share the same interests.

For the Macedonian driver, all this geopolitics boils down to one question: what the sign at the pump will say. And here's the bitter truth - when oil gets more expensive on the world market, the price here jumps the same hour; when it gets cheaper, somehow it's always late. The OPEC+ increase is news for the global exchanges, but whether it reaches us as relief - that's a completely different, much older story.