After the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, achieved through a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US, oil prices fell on Monday. But analysts immediately threw cold water on the euphoria - a full recovery of oil supply won't take days, but weeks, even months.

The scale is enormous. Before the conflict, one fifth of the world's oil passed through this narrow sea passage. Now hundreds of merchant ships still can't get through - by estimates, around 500 vessels are waiting in the Persian Gulf, and they can't all use the strait at once. Before safe navigation, experts say, there needs to be mine clearance and the restoration of internationally recognized corridors.

Producers, likewise, can't restore previous volumes in a single day. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could recover faster through alternative routes, while Iraq faces far greater difficulties. „The mood has clearly improved. But mood isn't the same as supply," one analyst sums up vividly. Economists estimate that energy flows could return to 80 percent of pre-conflict levels only around September.

For the Balkans this isn't distant news from the oil exchanges. Every shift in the global price of oil reaches our pumps within a few weeks, in the price of fuel, transport, and ultimately - everything that's driven and delivered. When the big players wage war and negotiate over a strait on the other side of the world, the bill often ends up in the budget of an ordinary Balkan household. The ceasefire is good news; just don't expect gasoline to get cheaper right away.