The drop in oil prices has opened the door for Donald Trump to do what was long too expensive - to hit Russian energy without setting prices alight at home. The US president announced that Washington could soon impose new sanctions on Russia, precisely because cheap oil lowers the political cost of the move.

"Thanks to the reduced oil prices, we can soon impose new sanctions on the Russian Federation", Trump said. The context is key: the announcement comes after his statement about a deal with Iran and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which knocked oil prices down. Brent fell to around 83 dollars a barrel, and US WTI to around 80 - the lowest level in three months.

Here's the logic that rarely gets said out loud. Until now, hitting Russian energy carried a risk for America itself - higher fuel prices at home and inflation. Now that oil is cheap, that risk is smaller, so the move becomes politically comfortable. In other words, the morals haven't changed - the math has. The sanctions are coming not when they became fairer, but when they became cheaper.

Britain and the EU have already expanded sanctions against Russian ships, the "shadow fleet" and the logistics networks that keep the war economy running. Russia's dependence on oil revenue remains Moscow's most vulnerable point. But the Balkans know all too well that sanctions are a game with more than one bottom - whoever really pays in the end is rarely the one they're aimed at. It remains to be seen whether Trump's words will turn into a signature, or just another announcement tossed out the moment the oil price allowed it.