Brent crude for July delivery - 105.76 dollars per barrel. Over four percent in a single day. Only last week the price was sliding down to 96 dollars while there was still hope of a diplomatic fix between Washington and Tehran. Now - reality has hit back.

Talks over the Strait of Hormuz showed „little progress". Donald Trump described the latest Iranian response as „completely unacceptable" and put the threats back on the table. Iran in turn rejected the American proposal. Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli conflict will „continue" until the question of Iran's nuclear programme is resolved.

Analysts stress - this is not a short-term price. The crisis can drag on. If the strait is fully closed - a scenario which is not impossible - the analyses predict a price of 150 dollars per barrel. That is another 40 percent on top of where we are now. Global recession. And even higher prices for everything - from diesel to flour to spare parts.

Why the Strait of Hormuz? Because „a significant share" of the global export of oil and gas runs through it. Between 10 and 12 million barrels a day. If it shuts, Iran is not the only one losing exports. All Gulf exporters - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait - are bottled up.

For the Balkans, this is a direct hit. Our oil is imported via Greek and Mediterranean routes - but the price is global. When Brent breaks 105 dollars, diesel at the pump goes up within 7 to 10 days. Transport gets more expensive. Food gets more expensive. Everything does.

Another casualty - South Korean stocks, which fell. Korean firms depend on stable exports and a string of industries are wired into energy. When the oil price is unstable, investors flee from the shares of companies with high energy costs.

Macedonia has no oil reserves on a scale that lets it react. It does not have meaningful strategic reserves either. When global prices jump, our budget and our citizens both pay - with a week or two of delay. That is the cost of a global conflict we are not part of - but which refuses to leave us alone.