The price of oil on world markets is back above 110 dollars a barrel. This isn't a technical jump driven by trader interest. It's a reaction to a concrete threat - Donald Trump wrote plainly on „Truth Social" that „the clock is ticking for Iran". And the markets read that as a warning of another crisis in Hormuz.

Brent crude climbed to 111.30 dollars a barrel, up 1.82%. WTI crude sits at 107.60 dollars, up 2.10%. Both benchmarks gained over 7% over the past week. That's a jump that hits Skopje's petrol pumps with a delay of 10 to 14 days. When it lands, it'll be an extra euro on the tank of an average 50-litre car.

The context is wider than one statement by the American president. The Strait of Hormuz is where a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through. It's an infrastructure choke point that, if it shuts or is blocked by missiles or drones, changes the entire world's supply chain. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar - they all export through that channel. Iran controls one shore of it territorially.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran „has no trust" in the US, but „leaves space for a diplomatic exchange". That's diplomatic language for „we're not completely furious, but we're not yielding either". When Trump speaks on „Truth Social", and the Iranian minister speaks to the state agency - these are two parallel stages without a real meeting. Between them, markets price in a risk premium.

For Balkan families, this means gas and oil will be more expensive in the coming weeks. The EU is still planning strategic reserves - but Macedonia's reserves aren't at a level that can absorb another shock. Transport companies are already planning price hikes. What follows is the standard list - costlier transport, costlier basic food, and a population on an average wage of 30,000 denars filling smaller baskets at the supermarket.