The Trump administration let the temporary licence that allowed certain countries - among them India and Indonesia - to buy Russian oil under certain conditions expire this Saturday. The short period of softening sanctions on Moscow is over. What comes next is one of the most important questions in today's global energy market.

The licence was introduced in April this year, when finance ministers of more than 10 energy-vulnerable countries asked Washington to loosen the sanctions regime on the Russian energy sector. The context - the Strait of Hormuz is closed due to the escalation between the United States and Iran, and without Russian oil on the market, prices started to fly.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent initially opposed extending it, then flipped position in two days following appeals from allies. Now that approach has been dropped. At the same time, Washington decided not to extend the similar Iranian carve-out. Both decisions mean even tougher sanctions on the two states - and potentially catastrophic oil prices.

European allies see this as good news. From their perspective, every euro that dries up for Moscow is one less euro to finance the war in Ukraine. From the perspective of New Delhi and Jakarta, it is a disaster for economies that depend on cheap energy. And for us in the Balkans - it is a serious threat.

We have already seen Brent prices above 105 dollars a barrel. Analyses warn that if the situation continues for a few weeks, we could see triple-digit prices per barrel on a standard basis. For a country like Macedonia, dependent on imports of every form of energy, that means more expensive fuel, more expensive food, and within 6 months - more expensive everything on the supermarket shelves.

The Hormuz crisis combined with the end of the oil exemptions is precisely what our economy cannot absorb. In the current situation, governments are talking about „readiness”, „monitoring”, „coordination with partners” - the usual political phrases that don't solve any concrete problem. The reality at the petrol pump and in electricity bills will start to bite over the coming weeks. And by then there will be no room left for diplomatic-economic rhetoric - just bills that have to be paid.