The European Union is preparing a new trade front against cheap Chinese imports. On 29 May the European Commission will weigh several possible measures - new tariffs for strategic sectors, anti-dumping procedures, and rules that encourage EU companies to reduce dependency on a single supplier.

The numbers are dramatic. The EU's trade deficit with China hit 360 billion euros in 2025. Chinese imports of 559 billion against far smaller European exports. On top of that, new problems are appearing with cheap parcels via online platforms that bypass the traditional export-import system. The EU has already announced that duty-free imports for parcels under 150 euros will end in 2026.

For Europe this is a question of industrial survival. Chemicals, machinery, electrical, green-tech components - all of it is under Chinese pressure. If the current trend continues, within a few years many European producers will be economically nonviable.

For the Balkans this is not a direct question - but the indirect consequences are serious. If the EU brings in tariffs that make Chinese goods more expensive, end-consumer prices in our region will go up - because Macedonia imports a large share of this cheap consumer stock through EU distribution chains. On the flip side, if the EU shields its own industries, that could open space for regional producers. It's an issue with two sides on the same coin.

China has already warned it may bring in countermeasures. That is diplomatic rhetoric, but also a real risk. The European strategy has to be measured enough not to trigger a trade war that everyone ends up paying for. Possibly for the first time in years, Brussels will have to do complicated economic math instead of relying exclusively on political principles.