Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused "extreme" depletion of global reserves. Brent crude is now expected to average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter - compared to a previous forecast of $80. Analysts estimate that global reserves fell by 11-12 million barrels per day in April alone.

The loss of 14.5 million barrels per day in Gulf production is, in their words, "not sustainable." If the shock continues, additional demand reduction is inevitable - and that means greater pressure on prices for everything, not just fuel. Futures markets last saw prices above $107 per barrel.

Morgan Stanley estimates that Gulf oil exports have declined by 14.2 million barrels per day due to the strait closure, with a direct reduction of global reserves by a further 4.8 million barrels per day. Combined - numbers no one has seen since the oil crises of the 1970s.

Normalization of Gulf exports is now expected no earlier than end of June, rather than mid-May, with slower recovery in the region. Macedonia, 100% dependent on imported oil, is now looking directly into a price shock for which it has no domestic response. The only question is when and how much will be felt at the pump.