Intel, the Silicon Valley chip icon that was nearly written off two years ago, has lifted its share price by 490% in the last 12 months. Not Tesla. Not Nvidia. Intel - the company analysts were writing obituaries for in 2024. So who is the new boss, and what is really happening behind those numbers?

Lip-Bu Tan, who took over as CEO in March of last year, spent the bulk of his first year on the job doing something very different from what the analyses expected. Instead of painful restructurings, he busied himself locking in big political and business alliances. The result: the US government is now the third-largest shareholder in Intel, a strategic alliance has been struck with Elon Musk (via SpaceX, for a fab), and in recent weeks preliminary manufacturing deals with Apple and Tesla have been reported.

That is what Bloomberg's deep dive this week recounts - but the most striking part is the bit they themselves underplay: Intel's market capitalisation has risen 5.9 times. The stock market is already certain a turnaround has happened. The question is - whether it actually has.

The reality on the factory floor is less rosy. Yields on Intel's chips still trail meaningfully behind those of Taiwanese leader TSMC. Employees speaking anonymously to Bloomberg say Tan has imposed little concrete internal accountability, with some teams that, instead of catching up on slipped deadlines, simply move them. That tells you one thing: the stock is trading on strategic posters and the comeback rhetoric, while the actual production machine is still grinding.

Will Wall Street be proven right - or is this another story of inflated expectations tied to Tan's politicking? When the government sits on your board of directors, every investor reads it as insurance that the company won't fail. That cuts the risk, but it does not automatically build technological supremacy. The question stays - in this current dynamic, is it the chips that are carrying the story, or the politics?