Education and Science Minister Vesna Janevska had two messages today. The first was addressed to teachers: "They are secure, they don't need to worry about their salaries, salaries will go up every year. Next year in March, teachers' salaries will be raised again."

The second was addressed to reality, and it sounded rather different.

The numbers are already here

According to ministry data, there are around 3,000 fewer first-graders this year than last. Twenty-six satellite schools are being temporarily closed. A total of 148 school buildings have no pupils at all. In the 2026/2027 school year there will be 433 fewer classes - 222 in primary and 211 in secondary education.

These are not figures from a projection for 2035. This is the first day of school this week.

Janevska defends the consolidation with an argument that makes sense: it is not good for a small group of children aged five to nine to sit isolated in one school, because that way they do not socialise with other children. Larger groups bring better conditions - smart boards, tablets, more peers.

The argument is correct. It simply is not an answer to the question of why the children are gone.

The deal with the teachers' union is real, but the timeline is long

The rises are part of the agreement with the SONK union for 46 percent growth by 2028. They began with 5 percent in October 2024, continued with 7 percent in March 2025 and 7.5 percent this year. The next one is in March 2027.

So at the very moment the minister says teachers are secure, the next instalment of that promised growth is six months away, while the number of classes shrinks immediately. A teacher in a satellite school going on standby hears the sentence "salaries will grow" while looking at an empty desk.

The ministry says the reforms will produce results in five to six years at the earliest, and optimally in nine to ten.

What is not being said

Consolidation is a response to demographics, not a cause of them. Nobody at the ministry explains what the state is doing to keep the families who take those 3,000 first-graders with them when they leave.

Closing a school is an administrative decision. A family emigrating is a series of individual decisions about pay, healthcare and the future. Consolidation adjusts the desks to the number of children. The question left unanswered today is who is working on the number of children.