Alexander Lukashenko has announced that Belarus will carry out a partial mobilisation, so that the army is „adequately prepared for a potential military clash". Addressing the military leadership, the Belarusian president was in his trademark pose - between intimidation and the role of grandfather of the nation.

The tone of the message is clear: „We will selectively mobilise units and armed forces to prepare them for war. With God's help we will manage to avoid it. Nevertheless, we are preparing for war". A line that in diplomatic vocabulary doesn't mean „war is close" - it means „someone needs to listen".

The mobilisation will not be universal. The target is specific units - reserve personnel with specialised military skills, and checks on logistical chains and stored military equipment. On the surface that sounds reasonable. In the context in which Minsk accuses NATO forces of concentrating on the Polish and Baltic borders - it sounds like preparation for something concrete.

What Lukashenko said later is more interesting: „Peacetime no longer exists". A sentence that can mean many things, or nothing. It can mean that Belarus has become the front line in the conflict between Moscow and NATO. It can mean Minsk wants to push through a bigger army budget. It can mean Lukashenko wants a political reboot on the domestic stage.

Analysts watching the region believe this is more a rhetorical move than real preparation for conflict. A selective mobilisation is largely a signal sent to two audiences: the neighbours, who are meant to receive it, and one's own nation, which is meant to feel the weight of the moment.

For the Balkans, the Belarusian example is instructive in one specific way. When a state that isn't in great geographical proximity prepares for war, it's a reminder that in Europe war is no longer a theoretical variant. Since Ukraine, no one can claim the balance is „stable". Lukashenko said it in four words: „Peacetime no longer exists". And with that sentence, he is not speaking only about Belarus.