Moscow looks like it is on fire. A series of explosions was heard above Yaroslavl, Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, and the worst hit was the Yaroslavl oil refinery "Yaroslavnefteorgsintez" - thick black smoke rises above the facility, visible for kilometres. Factories in the Rostov region were also struck, while Moscow's Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports halted flights.

The Ukrainian strike came after Russia's unilateral declaration of a ceasefire for May 8 and 9 - symbolically, for the celebration of Victory Day in the Second World War. Moscow demands all of Ukraine stay silent while it marks that day. At the same time, the Kremlin threatens "massive strikes" if the parade is disrupted. Kyiv answered with a simple calculation: if you are not stopping your strikes, why should we go quiet?

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claims air defence shot down several aircraft approaching the capital - 26 drones in a single night. Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar acknowledges damage, though officially no casualties. The Defence Ministry announced that 264 unmanned aerial vehicles were intercepted across Russian regions in total. To send that many drones in one night requires a coordinated military campaign of the kind Ukraine has been demonstrating more and more often this year.

Zelensky said Ukraine will respond "proportionately" to Russia's ceasefire violations. Kyiv announced that a ceasefire takes effect from midnight on May 6 - but Moscow ignored it. That is now the picture of the conflict: two sides accusing each other of breaking rules they themselves chose.

Why is this important for the Balkans? Energy and trade. When the refinery in Yaroslavl burns, Russian fuel exports fall. That means more expensive fuel on European markets, and indirectly for us. In Macedonia, which still depends on petroleum products coming through European markets, every cut in Russian capacity translates into a price at the pump within days. The symbolism of Victory Day is one thing. The price of petrol in your tank - quite another.