On day seventy of the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is on fire again. The United States struck Iranian military targets - missile and drone launchers, command centres, intelligence centres. According to the American military report, this was retaliation for the Iranian attack with missiles, drones and fast boats on three American destroyers passing through the strait.

Iran disputes the American version. According to Tehran, the United States broke the ceasefire first - with missile attacks on tankers near Bandar Jaask, then with attacks on civilian areas in Bandar Hamir, Sirik, and the island of Qeshm. Which version is closer to the truth? As in every war, both sides claim the other broke the rules first. As in every war, no one is in a position to verify objectively.

This time the conflict is spilling into the Gulf. The UAE Defence Ministry reported that air defences intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. Explosions were heard across the country. It means one thing: the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil passes, is again an active war zone. And it is not just Iran and the US anymore - now the Gulf states are involved directly.

US President Trump claims "the ceasefire is holding." The statement is in obvious contradiction with the fact that on that very night missiles and drones were launched and tankers were hit. Maybe some precise definition of "ceasefire" explains everything - but for oil markets, that is more rhetoric than reality. When the price of Brent jumps four percent in one night, nobody believes everything is fine.

Meanwhile, American strikes hit Iranian ports in Qeshm and Bandar Abbas. Regional allies, as reports go, have suspended support for the initiative "Operation Freedom" - a project that until weeks ago was considered a pillar of pro-American strategy in the Gulf. When allies start to pull back, that is the signal that the risk of escalation has become unbearable.

For the Balkans the direct consequences are energy. Oil prices have already risen, and if the Strait of Hormuz is physically blocked even for a few days, petrol in Skopje, Belgrade and Zagreb will feel those shocks almost immediately. The Balkans is not waging a war - but the Balkans is paying the bill for wars it cannot control. Should that be our current reality, or can something be done at the level of regional energy strategies? A question politicians rarely have time to open - until the next shock arrives.