Oil calm at 85 dollars - but that is not stability, it is a bet that Hormuz stays open

Oil prices on Thursday stayed almost unchanged: a barrel on the London market traded at around 85 dollars, while American crude reached nearly 80 dollars a barrel.

Calm numbers. The problem is that calm numbers right now do not mean a calm situation - they mean the market is betting that nothing is going to blow.

What the world is waiting for

Markets are watching relations between the US and Iran closely, because every new escalation can affect oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz - one of the most important maritime routes for transporting crude oil in the world. A significant share of global exports passes through it.

Despite the threats and the mutual warnings, investors are not expecting a serious disruption to deliveries for now. That is precisely why prices have stayed relatively stable.

Notice the construction: the price is stable not because the situation is stable, but because traders have calculated that the strait will stay open. That is not stability - that is a bet. And that bet gets re-examined every morning.

Meanwhile, according to OPEC data, the reference price of their basket of crudes fell to 84.39 dollars a barrel, which is 1.77 dollars less than the previous day.

One place on the map

The Strait of Hormuz is as narrow as its name suggests. It is the place where one geopolitical decision turns into a global number, within a few hours, without anyone's permission.

The Balkans know this scene by heart - not because of oil, but because we have always been on some map that others draw. The difference is that our straits were mountain passes, not shipping lanes.

For now the market is calm. The barrel is at 85, the OPEC basket dropped by a dollar seventy-seven, and traders are waiting for the next piece of news out of the Persian Gulf. None of it is resolved - it is only postponed until tomorrow.