The world is already paying the price of the war with Iran, and the most frightening thing is that the economic consequences may be yet to come. While billions of people face more expensive food, transport, energy and basic goods, there is talk once again of new military strikes that could cause an even bigger economic shock.

  The price of crude oil already exceeds 110 dollars a barrel. On October 23, 2026, Brent crude is trading above 114 dollars, almost double the lower prices before the war with Iran. But the real cost of this war isn't only visible on the world's stock exchanges. It shows up in every shop, every factory, every household and every state budget. Oil isn't just fuel. It's part of the price of almost every product we use. When oil goes up, transport goes up. When transport goes up, raw materials go up. When raw materials and energy go up, producers build the extra costs into the final price of their products. That's how a chain of price rises begins that everyone feels, whether they live in Macedonia, Germany, China or the United States. In some countries and for some categories of fuel, price rises for end consumers reach as much as around 70%. For some products, the extra costs of production, packaging, transport and distribution lead to dramatic price increases. States are spending huge sums so that citizens don't feel the full weight of the energy crisis. Governments step in with subsidies, tax cuts, price caps and drawing on strategic reserves. At a global level, these measures create enormous fiscal costs and pressure on public finances. Every euro spent on cushioning the energy shock is a euro that has to come from the budget, from new borrowing or from reallocating funds earmarked for other needs. That means healthcare, education, infrastructure, social protection and economic development can be left with less money. And while states try to control fuel prices, producers keep passing their higher costs on to citizens. That's why official inflation doesn't always reflect the burden a family feels. A household that spends most of its income on food, heating, electricity and transport can feel a much bigger price rise than the average inflation rate. For some families, the combined increase in the cost of living over recent years can be dramatic. But that doesn't mean the cost of living has officially risen by 60% in every country. At a time when the world economy is still feeling the effects of the military action so far, reports are emerging of preparations for, and consideration of, new military operations against Iran. Energy markets are already reacting to fears of a new escalation. Every attack on oil infrastructure, every threat to tanker traffic and every new disruption to supply can push the price of energy up even further. If the conflict spreads again, the consequences won't be confined to the Middle East. The most vulnerable countries, especially those that depend on energy imports and already have high public debt, could face serious financial crises, new borrowing, falling output, unemployment and even the risk of state insolvency. While military and political centres of power decide on new strikes, ordinary citizens are wondering how they'll pay their bills, how they'll put food on the table and how much more expensive life will get. The world economy can't absorb the consequences of military conflicts indefinitely. Especially not when one crisis piles on top of another and states burn through their financial reserves to prevent social and economic upheaval. The war with Iran stopped being just a regional military conflict long ago. It has become a global economic problem. And if a new, even bigger escalation follows, the question will no longer be just how much a barrel of oil will cost. The question will be how many states, companies and families can survive the next bill from the war.