"We hope we are near the end of the war" - Donald Trump told reporters. At that moment the war against Iran was in its seventh month. This is the same war that was described at the outset as an operation of a few weeks.

It began on 28 February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran and Tehran responded with strikes on Israel and on Gulf states hosting American bases. From then until now: thousands killed in the American-Israeli strikes on Iran and in the Israeli strikes on Lebanon, and millions of people displaced. The objectives and the deadlines shifted as it went - Trump moved them repeatedly.

A meeting in New York, and Tehran is not on the list

Next week, on the margins of the UN General Assembly, Trump is due to meet leaders of Gulf states - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. The topic, according to unpublished sources, is the American plan for a post-war strategy.

Notice what is missing from that list. The end of a war is being planned with everyone except the state being fought. Trump only mentioned that he had received a message from Iran "directly", without a single detail. The State Department and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

The nuclear weapons question

One of the official aims of the war was weakening Iran's nuclear capacities. It is worth repeating what the facts say: Iran does not possess nuclear weapons and maintains that its uranium enrichment programme is peaceful. The US does possess nuclear weapons.

That is not rhetoric, it is the distinction that determines who is allowed to attack whom in today's world. Seven months of war, thousands dead, and the weapon it all started over still does not exist.

The November elections are the real clock

If you want to predict when this war ends, do not look at the front line - look at the calendar. Oil and gas prices jumped because of the war and became a serious problem for Republicans ahead of the congressional elections in November. Suddenly, after seven months, hope for peace has appeared.

The Balkans know this pattern by heart: a war lasts as long as it pays someone, and peace arrives when the war starts costing votes. Seven months were not enough. November might be.