Tucker Carlson claims Trump will decide on a nuclear strike on Iran by 7 November: speculation or a trial balloon?

Tucker Carlson, former Fox News host and one of the most influential right-wing voices in America, wrote on X that the US administration is approaching a decision on the possible use of nuclear weapons against Iran. The deadline, according to him, is 7 November, and the decision would be Trump's.

The target, Carlson says, is Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran. According to claims by Israeli intelligence services, Tehran has restarted its uranium enrichment programme precisely in the tunnels beneath it, not far from the Natanz nuclear complex. Above those tunnels, he estimates, there are about 90 metres of solid granite.

Hence the conclusion he puts forward: "No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 90 metres of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where uranium is allegedly being enriched. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu is pushing hard for it." Note the order: geology first, then the claim that there's no other choice. That's what an argument sounds like when it knows from the start where it wants to end up.

Carlson also claims the Israeli prime minister is constantly pressuring Trump. Citing an unnamed "well-informed" source, he passed on this line: "Bibi calls Trump every day about it." According to Carlson, the US president is hesitating for now and listening to Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff, who believe a diplomatic deal with Tehran is still possible.

"The Atlantic": new strikes right after the elections

Carlson isn't the only one talking about dates. The American magazine "The Atlantic" reported that Trump is considering resuming major military operations against Iran right after the congressional elections scheduled for 3 November - that is, today. According to the magazine, the president has for weeks been weighing new strikes to force Tehran to the negotiating table.

At the same time, Trump is looking for people to blame for the war dragging on, even though, according to his aides' earlier estimates, it should have ended well before the elections. He has started questioning the performance of Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, the two who were his main advisers during the conflict. On the table, "The Atlantic" writes, are several military options - from short strikes to operations that would last several weeks. Possible targets include military sites, infrastructure and nuclear facilities.

The Balkans remember 1999 and know how quickly the "military options" in newspaper articles turn into sirens. The difference now is that the conversation mentions a weapon no state has used in war since 1945.

How much of this is genuine information, and how much a trial balloon? Carlson cites Israeli intelligence officers and an unnamed source, and his granite figure is exactly that - an estimate. But when a president looking for culprits for a war that didn't end on time gets a nuclear option put on the table, it's no longer ordinary speculation. Who will stop that option if Vance and Witkoff lose the argument?