The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is being drained faster under Donald Trump than it was under Biden. Current level: 374 million barrels - down from 638 million in January 2021. That's the lowest level we haven't seen since the 1980s.

The reason doesn't require much research. The Iranian conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shook global oil logistics. Of the crude that used to pass through this water corridor, previously about one quarter of all exported oil in the world and one fifth of liquefied natural gas went through. Now - part of that is gone, and the US is pulling from its reserves to fill the vacuum.

In the week ending May 15, they pulled 9.9 million barrels - a record over the past three years. About 50 percent of it went to export markets in Asia and Europe. Analyst Matt Smith sums it up: "The US has effectively become the supplier of last resort. The rest of the world is desperately reaching for that crude."

The other numbers matter too. The storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma - critical for setting the WTI price - fell from 33 to 24.5 million barrels in seven weeks. Among other things, it's the warehouse the market watches as a live indicator. When Cushing falls, gas-pump prices move.

The irony is that Trump himself, in 2022, was attacking Biden for draining the strategic reserves - and was doing so almost every week during the campaign. Now he's draining them faster. Politics changes with the chair, reality doesn't.

For the Balkans, this means something concrete. When the US reserves get pulled down, it shoves the global market upward - and that hits the pumps in Skopje, Zagreb, Sofia with a five-to-ten-day lag. That you don't go straight to Brent in a period like this is the optimistic forecast.